Thursday, March 28, 2013

"Experiencing Reassembly"

It's been a while. I suppose blogs aren't very useful if they're not updated. Consider this an 'under construction' notice. A few tweaks, a new premise, and this blog will be a bright and shining star for all to see.

Not that there are likely very many people looking, but it's a nice thought.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Divisional Playoffs, Game Four: Patriots-Jets, Round Two, Part Two

Brace yourselves, America: the most epic, ground-shattering, gravity-defying, and mind-blowing playoff rivalry matchup of all time is about to take place on Sunday night.

At least, according to Rex Ryan and the Jets.

Should the Jets end up recreating the scenario that took place last time these two teams met, though, it will be anything but epic. The Jets were thoroughly embarrassed on December 6th, as the Patriots stockpiled a grand total of 45 points, to New York's 3. Tom Brady and his crew dominated the Jets in every category that day, outgaining the Jets' offense by a total of 405-301, and forcing three turnovers, courtesy of NY quarterback Mark Sanchez.

For obvious reasons, the Jets would like to avoid another embarrassing rout; one, because it would eliminate them from Super Bowl contention, and two, because it would just look that much more embarrassing after all the talking that both coach Rex Ryan and several members of the team have done this season. Cornerback Antonio Cromartie was heard referring to Brady in less-than-savory terms, and Ryan has repeatedly referred to the game as a personal duel between himself and opposing coach Bill Belichick, building on the sentiment he created last season when he stated that he had not come to NY to kiss Belichick's rings.

So what can the Jets do to improve?

Key number one is certainly to focus on getting LaDainian Tomlinson, Shonn Greene, and Joe McKnight to be more effective on the ground. In the Dec. 06 game, the three running backs combined for a total of 130 yards rushing. Not the kind of production a team looks for in their running game. Sure, it was enough to outgain the Patriots on the ground, but that hardly did any good in terms of keeping Tom Brady off of the field, which will be another key to defeating their longtime nemesis. The less time Brady has the ball in his hands, the less damage he can do. With the MVP-caliber season he's having (only 100 yards shy of 4,000 with 36 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions), and Jets safety Jim Leonhard out since the weeks prior to that December game, it will be that much more difficult for the defense to limit Brady's time on the field. Which makes it absolutely imperative that the trio of running backs executes more efficiently this time around. Not only that, but the more successful they are at running the ball, the more resources New England will have to devote to containing them, opening up more chances for Mark Sanchez to find Braylon Edwards or Santonio Holmes through the air downfield. Though it won't be a cakewalk, it's certainly not impossible against a defense that allowed 108 yards rushing and allowed the second-most passing yards per game (258).

New England, despite Brady's success, will have to focus on essentially the same area mentioned above. Running back BenJarvus Green-Ellis has been effective for them this season after replacing Laurence Maroney, but he will have to be more than simply 'effective', or the team risks allowing the Jets to drop more defenders back to help Pro Bowl corners Darrelle Revis and Antonio Cromartie in coverage. Brady's proven in the past that he's up to the challenge, but any sane NFL coach or coordinator will agree that they'd rather not have to face that sort of situation in the first place.

Sam's Prediction: Despite a valiant effort, and a big push from LaDainian Tomlinson in his quest for his first Super Bowl ring, the Jets are forced to eat crow as they falter once more against Bill Belichick's juggernaut. Final score: 38-21.

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Divisional Playoffs, Game Three: ....wait, who??

Game 3 of the divisional playoff series this weekend will feature an epic showdown between the streaking Chicago Bears and...

...wait, this isn't right, I think I've gotten some misinformation here.

The Seattle Seahawks? A 7-9 team? And they somehow made it past the Saints, a team that finished 11-5 and, only a year ago, nearly went undefeated in the regular season and topped the Colts in the Super Bowl?

Say it isn't so.

Alas, the truth is that the Seahawks are indeed marching on into the second round of the playoffs - and in grand fashion, too. The lowly Seattle team demolished the defending Super Bowl champion New Orleans Saints by a score of 41-36 last week, despite being outgained 474-415 in total yardage. A large portion of the credit for that victory lies with Matt Hasselbeck, who experienced a career revival in that game, throwing for 272 yards and four touchdowns. Only four times this season (five, including this game) has Hasselbeck topped 250 yards in one game. In six of those games, he failed to even reach the 200-yard mark.

His performance in this game will be key if the Seahawks want to pull off another upset over the #2 seeded NFC North champion Bears. Five of Seattle's wins came in games where Hasselbeck successfully threw a touchdown pass. In games where he threw none, Seattle went 1-4. His health will also be a factor. Seattle has to protect Hasselbeck from too many hits, risking the chance that they will be forced to resort to backup Charlie Whitehurst. In games that Charlie Whitehurst played or started, Seattle went 2-3. Whitehurst topped 100 yards passing only twice in those five games, and threw only two touchdown passes. Whitehurst's inconsistency would only hurt Seattle's chances, especially against a Bears defense that had 34 sacks for the season, and was fifth in the league with 21 interceptions. Seattle will have to ensure that rookie Russell Okung has help against Pro Bowl defensive end Julius Peppers, who finished the regular season with eight sacks and two interceptions.

Another player of importance is running back Marshawn Lynch. Against New Orleans, Lynch had a breakout performance in his first season with the Seahawks, running for 131 yards and a touchdown on a ridiculous game-sealing run in the fourth quarter during which he broke eight tackles. Not once during the regular season did any Seattle tailback break the 100-yard mark in a single game - a stat which caused no end of trouble for the team, as it allowed opposing defenses to key in on Hasselbeck and devote fewer resources to defending against the run. If Lynch can repeat his performance against the Bears, who were 2nd in the league with only 90 rushing yards allowed per game, the Seahawks stand a much better chance of advancing further into the playoffs.

For the Bears, their biggest flaw is certainly the offensive line. Quarterback Jay Cutler has certainly spent more time on his rear end on the turf than he would like, after being sacked 52 times - the most in the NFL. The Seattle defensive line was no pushover, finishing at 13th in the league with 37 sacks. If the Bears can't keep Cutler on his feet long enough to loft the ball to speedy receivers Johnny Knox, Earl Bennett, and Devin Hester, they stand little chance of maintaining their lofty position in the rankings, and will be sent home in disgrace to ponder their futures, and what might have been. They'll have to contain Seattle's rookie sensation Earl Thomas, as well as veterans Lofa Tatupu and Lawyer Milloy. Cutler will also be forced to play a bit more cautiously, as cornerback Marcus Trufant will be lurking throughout the game, waiting for just one errant throw - which Cutler, who threw 16 interceptions (eighth-most in the league), is certainly prone to.

Sam's Prediction: Seattle surprises the nation again, as Cutler is reduced to a near non-factor by the surging Seattle defense, spending more time on the turf than on his feet, and throwing three picks to further pad the Seattle secondary's stats. Final score: 24-13.

Tomorrow: New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

Divisional Playoffs, Game Two: Packers-Falcons

I'll say this immediately, before I start throwing stats out there and comparing either team.

It is virtually impossible for me to write objectively about this matchup. My loathing for the Packers runs a bit too deep for that; ergo, my prediction's probably going to be affected. Probably. There's just a slight chance.

Moving on, though, this matchup could turn out to be the opposite of the game previewed last night. While the Ravens and Steelers will showcase two stiff defenses facing elite offenses, likely resulting in a low-scoring game, this matchup has all the potential to explode into a repeat of Green Bay's 51-45 shootout against Arizona last season. While Green Bay's defense ranked 5th in the league, allowing only 15 points per game on average, they face a Falcons team at the top of its game, brimming with confidence - and most importantly - at home. Atlanta boasts a 7-1 record when playing in the Georgia Dome, and quarterback Matt Ryan has only one loss in his last 16 home starts. The two teams have met only twice, with Atlanta winning both matchups. The last time they met, Atlanta won at home by a score of 20-17, despite Rodgers' impressive performance of 344 yards passing and a touchdown. A key to Atlanta's success that day was the work of running back Michael Turner, who turned in 110 rushing yards and a touchdown of his own. Turner, who finished third in the NFL in rushing yards with 1,371, will likely be used extensively in this playoff battle as well. Despite Green Bay's defensive success, they still allowed an average of 114 rushing yards per game - something Turner and backup Jason Snelling can take advantage of.

On the other hand, Green Bay has been woeful when it comes to running the ball, leaving almost everything in 3rd-ranked quarterback Aaron Rodgers' hands. Running backs Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn managed only a combined 984 yards for the season - less than most starting running backs gained on their own. Against Philadelphia, newcomer James Starks shocked both teams by rushing for 123 yards. If he can continue to produce that way against an Atlanta defense that allowed 105 yards per game, it will give the Packers a much needed boost. The only question is whether Atlanta will have had enough time to adjust their gameplan to account for Starks, especially now that they have defensive stars John Abraham and Jonathan Babineaux healthy and rested. The Packers enjoyed success moving against Philadelphia this past weekend with Starks' help, but Atlanta's defense will offer a much stiffer challenge than that.

In the end, it will likely come down to a battle between Rodgers, who managed 261 yards per game, and Ryan, who averaged 231. Atlanta will have their hands full containing Green Bay's deep roster of wide receivers, and Green Bay will have to devote defenders to covering wide receiver Roddy White and tight end Tony Gonzalez, both Pro Bowl-caliber players. Look for the score in this one to skyrocket as each team tries to get one more scoring drive in than the other.

Sam's Prediction: Green Bay is sent home in disappointment once again after a hard-fought battle against the NFC's top seed, but can't figure out a scheme that effectively stops the combination of Michael Turner and Matt Ryan. Final score: 44-37

And the cards go wild...

Well, Round 1 of the NFL playoffs is officially over. The Seahawks surprised the country with a wild 41-36 upset of the defending Super Bowl champions, the New Orleans Saints. The New York Jets avenged their AFC Championship loss last season by edging out the Colts on a last-second field goal. The Green Bay Packers avoided another crazy thrashing (like the one they received at the hands of Kurt Warner's Cardinals last year) by containing the elusive Michael Vick. And last, but not least, my hometown Chiefs lost badly to the Baltimore Ravens, ruining any hopes of a Super Bowl appearance. Ah, well. You win some, you lose some.

Now it's time to turn our attention to the second round - the divisional round, which will feature the Packers against the top-seeded Atlanta Falcons, the Seahawks against the second place Chicago Bears, and the reigning AFC top dog New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers against their respective bitter rivals, the Jets and Ravens.

The AFC divisional playoffs, especially, promise to be exciting. The rivalry between Pittsburgh and Baltimore is legendary, reaching all the way back to when the AFC North was first formed in 2002. Each team is renowned for its tough physical style of defensive play, and this season is no different, with Pittsburgh ranked at second-best out of the league's 32 teams, and Baltimore ranked 10th. The two teams have met a total of 32 times, with the record standing at 20-12 in favor of the Steelers. The last playoff matchup between the two rivals was in January of 2009, when they clashed in the AFC Championship game. The Steelers won that game 23-14, and went on to top the Arizona Cardinals in the Super Bowl on Santonio Holmes' miraculous last-second catch. This time, the Ravens will try to come out on top, and there seems to be no better time to do it than now.

After a string of offseason moves that stunned many fans, Baltimore found itself loaded on offense, with additions such as wide receivers Anquan Boldin, TJ Houshmandzadeh, and Donte Stallworth. Up-and-coming quarterback Joe Flacco continued to impress by maintaining his winning ways,  which began during his rookie season, when he led the Ravens to the AFC Championship game. Despite several offensive slumps, including one during the closing weeks of the regular season that left some wondering if the Ravens could win their opening matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, the team managed to finish with a record of 12-4; not quite enough to win the division over Pittsburgh, but plenty to lock down a playoff spot and another chance to reach the Super Bowl.

Pittsburgh, meanwhile, seemed to be organizing a "Who's Who" reunion gathering during the offseason by signing several veteran players, some of whom played for the Steelers organization at some point in time during their careers - players like Antwaan Randle El and Byron Leftwich. With star quarterback Ben Roethlisberger on a four-game suspension to start the season, backup quarterbacks Byron Leftwich and Dennis Dixon had their work cut out for them. Behind a defense that finished having allowed only 14.5 points per game, and good performances from running back Rashard Mendenhall, the Steelers survived, losing only one of the four opening games. Once Roethlisberger returned, it seemed like smooth sailing, as the team cruised to a 12-4 record of their own, including a tiebreaker matchup that gave them the division title over Baltimore for the 20th time.

As always, this matchup promises to be an exciting one, with each team exchanging blow after blow. The Steelers' defense has allowed an average of only 276 total yards per game this season, while the Ravens have allowed 322. Look for Baltimore to rely heavily on running back Ray Rice, who carried his team much of the time, finishing with 1,220 yards on the season - his second consecutive year with over 1,000 yards since winning the starting job with Baltimore. The Steelers will also be looking to Mendenhall, who finished with 1,297 yards, to keep the ball in their hands for as long as possible, and away from a Baltimore offense that gained 208 passing yards per game and 114 rushing.

Sam's Prediction: Baltimore wins over Pittsburgh in a close game that yields only one score, robbing them of the chance for a second Super Bowl in three years. Final score: 12-10

Patriots/Jets, Seahawks/Bears, and Packers/Falcons still to come. Stay tuned.