I'll say this immediately, before I start throwing stats out there and comparing either team.
It is virtually impossible for me to write objectively about this matchup. My loathing for the Packers runs a bit too deep for that; ergo, my prediction's probably going to be affected. Probably. There's just a slight chance.
Moving on, though, this matchup could turn out to be the opposite of the game previewed last night. While the Ravens and Steelers will showcase two stiff defenses facing elite offenses, likely resulting in a low-scoring game, this matchup has all the potential to explode into a repeat of Green Bay's 51-45 shootout against Arizona last season. While Green Bay's defense ranked 5th in the league, allowing only 15 points per game on average, they face a Falcons team at the top of its game, brimming with confidence - and most importantly - at home. Atlanta boasts a 7-1 record when playing in the Georgia Dome, and quarterback Matt Ryan has only one loss in his last 16 home starts. The two teams have met only twice, with Atlanta winning both matchups. The last time they met, Atlanta won at home by a score of 20-17, despite Rodgers' impressive performance of 344 yards passing and a touchdown. A key to Atlanta's success that day was the work of running back Michael Turner, who turned in 110 rushing yards and a touchdown of his own. Turner, who finished third in the NFL in rushing yards with 1,371, will likely be used extensively in this playoff battle as well. Despite Green Bay's defensive success, they still allowed an average of 114 rushing yards per game - something Turner and backup Jason Snelling can take advantage of.
On the other hand, Green Bay has been woeful when it comes to running the ball, leaving almost everything in 3rd-ranked quarterback Aaron Rodgers' hands. Running backs Brandon Jackson and John Kuhn managed only a combined 984 yards for the season - less than most starting running backs gained on their own. Against Philadelphia, newcomer James Starks shocked both teams by rushing for 123 yards. If he can continue to produce that way against an Atlanta defense that allowed 105 yards per game, it will give the Packers a much needed boost. The only question is whether Atlanta will have had enough time to adjust their gameplan to account for Starks, especially now that they have defensive stars John Abraham and Jonathan Babineaux healthy and rested. The Packers enjoyed success moving against Philadelphia this past weekend with Starks' help, but Atlanta's defense will offer a much stiffer challenge than that.
In the end, it will likely come down to a battle between Rodgers, who managed 261 yards per game, and Ryan, who averaged 231. Atlanta will have their hands full containing Green Bay's deep roster of wide receivers, and Green Bay will have to devote defenders to covering wide receiver Roddy White and tight end Tony Gonzalez, both Pro Bowl-caliber players. Look for the score in this one to skyrocket as each team tries to get one more scoring drive in than the other.
Sam's Prediction: Green Bay is sent home in disappointment once again after a hard-fought battle against the NFC's top seed, but can't figure out a scheme that effectively stops the combination of Michael Turner and Matt Ryan. Final score: 44-37
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